My good friend Ian, back from Borneo and documentary film making, notes an excellent analysis that increasingly it is apparent that the theological rule is a cover for a society run by the military and the militia. This would hardly be the first time in history that the palace has been seized by its soldiery. Khamenei never particularly struck me as a man whose command is law, but rather as a perfunctory monarch who nods and waves and issues obvious orders. Ahmadinejad, notwithstanding his little contretemps with the mullahs, represents a new step in the development of a tinpot fascism, one that is ahead of the clerical wave.
So, if that is true, the question for the revolution is how to prevent the incipiently fascist regime and its official and unofficial muscle from unleashing an epochal massacre. It's hard to imagine that the whole thing does not end up that way. But I do not believe that the initiative is in the hands of Khamenei. It is possible that the leadership of the military/militia is insufficiently unitary, and that a move is made that fails by reason of its breaking ranks withe other sectors. In other words, it is not always he who moves first who wins. Sometimes, the first one out of the trenches takes the first bullet.
Obviously impossible to predict. But we are not hearing any speculation on the moves of the actual power-holders who can move or restrain the forces that have the ability to kill a million people. Because in any theology, or leastwise any regime which draws it authority from gawd, it is always a matter of how many die and how and by whose hand.
But if the military/militia analysis of the state is valid, then agian and once again it comes down to whether soldiers obey orders to kill civilians. Assume that the militia can never be won over. But soldiers are form the same strata as the protesters, and they can be turned.
Nonetheless, this will end in blood. The question is whose blood. I am not optimistic. But I know only what I read on Twitter. Perhaps the underlying forces are ripe.
What can I say. I love Twitter. Follow me at arodsf. Being so close to the literary action in Iran via Twitter has been compelling. The role of social media in out world in the future is still to be written ... but given the ominous signs and the forces at work, will Twitter become the obituary column for human hopes ... ooops, don't mean to be a downer.
Obama and the Gays
Funny how the DOJ brief to the court on DOMA seems to have been a tipping point for understanding that the Obama administration is a disappointment at this point. Bill Maher, MSNBC's Ed, and chorus of the blogosphere ... everybody is suddenly wiling to say it out loud. This guy's soft shoe is now a sellout. We're not convinced any more.
What an obscene dog and pony show when Obama, his body language exuding annoyance, signed the ludicrously limited and untested benefits for federal employee domestic partners. Talk about crumbs from the table ... leftovers for the uninvited guests who just wouldn't leave no matter all the not-so-subtle hints. I don't buy it ... not for one second.
But say this much ... the wave of revulsion at that DOJ brief forced the White House to put that dog and pony show together mighty fast. Remember the law of unintended consequences. Obama's little flick of the wrist in our direction may be a tipping point. I detect virtually no public outrage ... the 'publicans, of course, are busy clamming up about the latest family-values-fascist caught with his penis out of his pants. SO when legislation comes up for votes, I think it becomes increasingly obvious that the penalty for a pro-gay vote may be nothing.
Still the stink of complacency hangs about the White House. I do not want to think that it is too late for him to become a game changer. But the present evidence is not inspiring.
I Love Animals
But the notion that PETA is mad because Obama expertly killed a fly is beyond ludicrous. We are a society where any fixation devolves into madness instantly. But defending the rights of house flies ... isn't that the last straw?
No pics today ... just want to bang out a post and chill ... work is building up ... four major web sites to go live before classes start in September. Wow. Kinda thrilling; I guess I actually get some kind of charge out of deadlines.
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Thursday, June 18, 2009